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Strategy2012-02-17

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Best NCAAB Conference in the Country – Mountain West Conference

NCAAB2012-02-06

When somebody asks you, what is the best conference in the country in college basketball, most people will instantly say the Big 12, Big Ten, Big East, or the SEC. While it is evident that these conferences deserve credit for their extraordinary play and their numerous teams atop the rankings, I am going to make a case for a little talked about conference. This conference is the Mountain West.

Even though the Mountain West has been hit by the current uncertainty of university conference membership, they are not letting this affect their play on the court. With BYU and Utah leaving the MWC for greener pastures this past offseason, this left the MWC with only eight member schools for the 2011 season. Utah and BYU had been key contributors to this conference’s success over the past decade but the remaining universities have moved on and maybe put up the best results in conference history this year.

Right now the MWC has two of their eight schools in the top 25 with (20-3) San Diego State and (21-4) UNLV, with (19-4) New Mexico and (18-5) Wyoming right on their heels. It wouldn’t surprise to see them get as much as 50% of their members in the top 25 at some point before the end of the year. The MWC also has six of their eight universities in the top 100 of the RPI. This puts the MWC at 75% of their schools in the top 100 of the RPI. Only the Big Ten has a higher rate at 83%. The MWC currently ranks as the 5th best conference in the RPI ahead of perennial powerhouses like the ACC and PAC 12 and just hundredths of percentage points behind the top rated Big Ten Conference.

The MWC schools have racked up wins against the likes of Arizona, Cal (2), North Carolina, Illinois, Virginia, and Saint Louis who have all been rated in the top 25 at some point this year. Not included in this list are a number of other BCS schools like USC (3), Arizona State, Washington State, Boston College, Oklahoma State, Colorado (2), Texas Tech, and Utah. Most of these BCS schools have more resources than any of these MWC schools could dream of, but yet they have proven that money doesn’t buy wins.

Right now I legitimately think this conference deserves 4 bids to March Madness with the following schools:


Locks to make the tournament


UNLV (21-4)

Best Wins: North Carolina, Illinois, Cal, New Mexico
Questionable Losses: None
Current RPI: 7
Strength of Schedule: 51

This is probably the easiest case to make out of all the MWC teams. Their win over, at the time #1 rated, North Carolina really propelled this team on the national stage. This is the best win this conference has produced this year and the only national recognition I have seen from the media on any team from the MWC. They have also taken wins from Illinois and Cal on their way to a solid overall season and a potential #2 seed.


San Diego State (20-3)

Best Wins: Arizona, Cal, UNLV, New Mexico
Questionable Losses: None
Current RPI: 21
Strength of Schedule: 85

San Diego State is one of those teams that have done nothing to shoot themselves in the foot and they show up for every game. They have some goods wins but nothing that will get them considered for a top seeding like UNLV can receive. If they continue to play solid ball to finish the year I see them getting somewhere between a 3-5 seed.


New Mexico (19-4)

Best Wins: Saint Louis, Oklahoma State, Missouri State
Questionable Losses: Santa Clara, New Mexico State
Current RPI: 41
Strength of Schedule: 97

Even though this team doesn’t have any top caliber wins they have stockpiled a bunch of wins against quality opponents. Also in my opinion this team has the ability to make just as much noise in the big dance as UNLV and SDSU. This team has depth and talent to go along with a great head coach in Steve Alford. This is my dark horse to make a big run in the tournament this year and they have the potential to make the final four if everything goes right. Right now New Mexico is looking at somewhere between a 7-10 seed.


Still has work to do


Wyoming (18-5)

Best Wins: Colorado, UNLV
Questionable Losses: Green Bay, TCU
Current RPI: 84
Strength of Schedule: 163

Much like San Diego State, Wyoming has really played consistent all year and they haven’t had many slipups. They just picked up their biggest win of the year last week against UNLV and going forward they can earn their way into the tournament. Their win over UNLV finally gets them in the conversation as a legitimate tournament team. This team also has a great group of players and they could be bracket busters in March. Don’t rule out a run to the sweet sixteen if this team slides in somewhere between a 9-12 seed.


Even though I think this conference deserves at least 4 teams in the tournament I am realistic. Many of the people deciding who gets in have what we call “east coast bias” or haven’t even seen these MWC teams play. I assure you these teams pass the eye test and if given a chance I think they would make serious noise in the March Madness. If given this opportunity I think many people would be convinced that this year the MWC is the most competitive conference in the country.

NBA Outlook

NBA2011-12-24

Sleepers

The Memphis Grizzlies are poised to have a break-out year in an ever changing NBA. In the past, this Memphis team would be my dark horse to make the championship but in this era of ‘super-teams’ it is almost impossible for an above average team from top to bottom to make it that far. This is due to the fact that sooner or later one of the now many super-teams will knock them out eventually. With that said I see Memphis making a strong push for one of the top four seeds in the West. I feel Memphis is an underestimated team since Marc Gasol recently got an extension and Rudy Gay is starting alongside Tony Allen this season. However, be warned Memphis’ bench recently lost Darrell Arthur to a season ending Achilles injury.

I look in the same division to find my next sleeper, the San Antonio Spurs. The only reason I have them as a sleeper is plain and simple- the lockout. Where the lockout has hurt many teams trying to put new pieces together the Spurs stayed pat with what they had. Any team this year that returns a similar lineup is in for an above average season. This is because those teams will already have chemistry whereas teams with new additions may get off to a slow start due to the shortened preseason. Another lockout benefit was rest. San Antonio is the oldest playoff bound team in the NBA and a longer offseason/ shorter regular season means a healthier Parker and Duncan. The only question is will they be able to hold up, my opinion is yes. They have the talent to win it all if healthy and with how this season has been set up it is the ideal situation for this type of team.

The Philadelphia 67ers went 38-28 in their final 66 games after a 3-13 start. If the 67ers end up with a 38-28 record I think that would be considered a vast improvement over last year. On top of that reports are that Evan Turner as improved greatly over this past off season. If those reports are true, which will be easy to see within the first 4 or 5 games, the 67ers look poised to push forward this season assuming the team has grown together after last year. This is the team to gamble early on because the odds makers may not be convinced yet about the 67ers reported new continuity.

I know the Bulls are some peoples champion pick so it is hard to call them a sleeper, however, with the Cavs, Pistons, Bucks and Pacers in the division the Bulls will have won their division after the first game is played- win or lose. Outside of their mediocre competition the Bulls did add Rip Hamilton who will take enormous pressure off of Chicago’s big men. I thought Boozer was going to have a rebound year even before the signing of Hamilton but now I am virtually guaranteeing it. The Bulls are one of a handful of teams that could win 50+ games in a 66 game season. The Bulls are my pick to win it all this year. That is how important this one addition was to the team.

Failures

My top team for failure is the Detroit Pistons. Their only good player, Rip Hamilton, has left for the Chicago Bulls. Their three top players are Monroe, Daye and Knight. Never heard of them? No one outside of Detroit has either and although I do not expect a locker room blowup like last year I do not see good things for the Pistons entering the season.

The New Jersey Nets are another team I see underperforming this year. Although I do not think it will effect them the entire season, the failure to acquire Dwight Howard from Orlando plus the recent injury to Brook Lopez seems like this team is almost destined to underperform. They are definitely heading in the right direction and will land Howard or some other superstar next year but unless a miracle is worked to get Howard (which would implode their team due to not being able to trade Lopez due to injury) I see a sub .500 team this year unless the Nets work some magic and fill their now glaring need of a center.

The Atlanta Hawks lost the best 6th man in the NBA in Jamal Crawford to the Portland Trail Blazers. The rest of the team remains in tack which in a lockout year is ideal but the loss of Crawford will be the Hawks undoing. Crawford single handedly won at least 5 games last year. From 10 points in 2 minutes to last second shots to win the game Crawford seemingly never disappointed under pressure. I do not see the Hawks in the playoffs unless the Magic trade Howard because of the Magic being in their division. The Magic have Howard, the Heat are the Heat and the Wizards did not get much worse. The Atlanta Hawks have a long and tough road ahead this year.

Gamble of the Year

The Sacramento Kings are my gamble of the year. They have great young talent but do not have a passing point guard to distribute the ball. This one fact is why they could be one of the worst teams in the NBA or the biggest sleeper of the year. If their talent shines they will have a respectable playoff seed with even a possible home game in the first round. Or their passing point guard woes and young selfish talent could implode the team if they start off bad due to all of the different personalities on the team. My advice is if they get off to a good 5 or 6 game start they will be a safe bet this year with long winning and losing streaks that frequently happen to young teams (and will be better at home).